USD
Index
Analysis: While the total OI changed very little, there was a big shift of over 9000 contracts from a commercial short to a large spec short position. The chances are this is the change in classification of existing trades. What was formerly a commercial hedge position has been changed to spec position. The effect is a reduction of the large spec long. Small specs are not a factor in this small market. Further using "signals" from the technical behavior of this market to predict the direction of much larger markets is of dubious value, in my opinion.
EUR
Analysis: There was a hearty reduction in the total OI as the Sept contract expired. Most of the reduction was by commercials, and would suspect that a portion was pricing of hedged contracts probably. Both size specs reduced their net short positions in the euro. Positions of all classes of participants is in balance suggesting no consensus where the euro is going. There was a pick up in spreading activity by 2031 contracts, with the total spreads now equating to 12.8% of the OI. This reflects in increase in option activity, and suggests banks and hedge funds are busy in the option market.
GBP
Analysis: With the OI down almost 71,000 contracts it looked like every one bailed out of the pound. The reduction in the commercial OI is to be expected with contract expiration. Spec behavior is more interesting. Although they were reducing their positions, they were more aggressive covering shorts. Small actually specs flipped their position to a small long. The large spec remains with a smaller short than in the previous period.
JPY
Analysis: There was no surge in the OI of the yen which would have implied a leak about the timing of the intervention. Large specs were over a 4 to 1 long, and the small specs finally flipped their position and ended up with a small long. Next week should show a big reduction in the spec long OI.
CHF
Analysis: The SF, despite the big commercial liquidation, keeps a big OI for the size of this small country. The reputation as a safe haven in a troubled financial world keeps the spec buying the SF. Both the large and small specs currently have about 2 to 1 long positions. There is little additional feature.
CAD
Analysis: Strange to see the OI went up a little as the Sept contract expired. Large specs reduced their short position by over 14,000 contracts and the commercial increased their short by over 17,000. Possibly part of this may be the shifting of existing trades from large spec to commercial trades. Specs increased their long positions by over 15,000 contracts and are now about a 2 to 1 long.
NZD Contracts: 25,755 21,414 4,575 3,476 1,078 865 20,102
Change: -2,167 6,766 -696 741 -119 -9,011 -689
% Open Interest: 83.1 17.8 13.5 4.2 3.4 78.1
Analysis: Both the large and small specs are very fond of the kiwi. The large spec is long 83.1% of the total OI and is a 4,6 to 1 long, while the small specs are about a 3 to 1 long.
AUD
Analysis: Most of the Sept contract liquidation was done by the commercials. Specs continue adding more longs to their position. Large specs are a 4.3 to 1 long and the small specs are a 2 to 1 long. Commodity currencies are back and the price and OI has been going up.
Resource:forexrazor
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